October 4, 1962
CONGRESSMAN'S REPORT

By Morris K. Udall

WHO'S WINNING THE COLD WAR?



I'm proud and fortunate to be an American living in a 20th century society which enjoys more basic freedoms and more material wealth than any nation in the history of this earth. All of us can rejoice in the blessings we now have. Yet, I sense from my mail a great deal of worry and concern about the future of our country. This uneasiness seems to boil down to two conclusions which are drummed into our people from many sources: (1) We are gradually losing our free enterprise system to socialism; and (2) we are slowly, but surely, losing the cold war and will eventually live under communism.

In a recent report I tried to refute the charge that we are blindly stumbling into a democratic socialism. In this report, I will suggest that we stand back a moment and compile a box score of Khrushchev's position in the cold war.

I heard an agitated radio commentator the other night picture Khrushchev as a ruthless giant astride his monolothic Communist empire "steamrolling across the face of the earth at a fantastic speed." This is a defeatist view taken by many constituents who write: we do nothing right; the Russians do nothing wrong; our foreign policy always is blind, foolish, futile; Russian foreign policy is masterful, devious and always successful; the free world is gradually shrinking as communism nibbles away here and there. Is this a balanced view of events since World War II? What are the facts?

It is true that all is not rosy for us. Khrushchev has had some cold war scores; we have serious problems in Berlin, Cuba and elsewhere. The path ahead of us is full of traps and dangers. Perhaps the world will plunge itself into nuclear war. But I venture to suggest that Khrushchev's scorecard isn't all hits and runs. He has a lot of errors and strikeouts too.

The Liability Side of Khrushchev's Ledger

All of us are familiar with Communism's successes. Let's take a look at the debit side of its ledger. Here are some of the things worrying this 68 year old dictator as he looks over the world from his Kremlin office.

Worry: The Home Front

* FOOD Shortages remain a problem. The "virgin lands" reclamation project in Central Asia is a failure. Sharp increases in food prices announced.
* HOUSING Adequate facilities are scarce. Construction generally is in a mess. It was recently ordered that no new projects will begin until existing ones are completed and some of these are years behind. Consumer goods are costly.
* INDUSTRIAL
BREAKDOWN
Machines are idle for want of spare parts. Industrial output still is only around 45% of the U.S. level. Of 47 major products, the most recent comprehensive study shows the Soviet Union had forged ahead of the U.S. in only 5: bicycles, sewing machines, fish,flour and footwear. In 25 other products it fell farther behind.
* SPACE
RACE
STRAIN
Five of six probes to other planets have failed. The cost of the space race and military programs have heavily strained the Soviet economy. Russia reduced its foreign aid program by half in the past year, reneged on promises to abolish income taxes.
* DISCONTENT This generation of Russians wants more of the good things of life and is restless. The death penalty has been revived to cope with increased crime and corruption. Despite jamming, millions listen to the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe. Millions of Russians have personal memories of slave labor camps which at one time held as many as 15 million persons. Despite growing population, membership in the Young Communist League has remained static. Press accounts indicate collection of dues from Communist Party members is sometimes difficult. Within the

 
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party ranks there is competition among old Stalinists and other enemies of Khrushchev, younger men striving for top positions and the powerful military.

None of this means an internal overthrow of the Communist regime is in the offing. But it indicates that this home base of all Communist power is not a place of enthusiastic multitudes. Perhaps it is the Communist economy (not the capitalist) which carries by its very nature the seeds of its own destruction.

Worry: The Satellite World

Eastern Europe, with its 116 million people, had close ties with Western Europe in the past. Much evidence indicates the people of Eastern Europe remain restless and anti-Communist:
 

* REVOLTS have flared in Poland, Hungary and East Germany. In the latter country alone 22 Soviet divisions are used to hold the people in line.
* THE BERLIN
WALL
is a monument to weakness on the Soviet side, not ours. Successful societies do not have to build walls and string barbed wire against their own people.
* ALBANIA Has publicly denounced the Soviet Union for aiding India; shut off vital ports to Russian submarines.
* YUGOSLAVIA Continues to pursue a course independent of Khrushchev. English replaces Russian as the most widely taught foreign language. U.S. Information Service is permitted to carry out programs on greater scale than in any other East European country. New York Times and Herald Tribune received in some 70 libraries.
* POLAND Headed by a man who has resisted Soviet pressure for farm collectivization, quarreled with Soviets on boundary lines, and opposed Moscow's attacks on Tito. American magazines, films, exhibits permitted.

To a large degree the satellite captive nations are not Russian assets, but liabilities.

Worry: Red China

Along the border of K's homeland lies Red China. Its more than 650 million people (a fifth of mankind) are restless, impoverished, in desperate need of food and space. Red China might start war with India--a war Russia does not want. The risks increase as Red China moves closer to possession of nuclear weapons. With its massive manpower, China is too close geographically, and apparently too far away idealogically, to provide much comfort for K.

Worry: Japan

Communists confidently expected to take over Japan when our occupation ended. Yet today, 93 million Japanese are enjoying a prosperous life vastly different than that available to the millions under Communist rule in Red China. Japan's progress has come under a working democracy, not under totalitarianism.

Worry: The Underdeveloped Areas of Africa and Asia

By Communist dogma, the former colonies should have turned in hatred against their ousted rulers. But most leaders of emerging countries have chosen to develop in cooperation with the industrially advanced free nations. And in
 

THE CONGO At one time, a takeover by Communists seemed imminent.
Successful intervention by the United Nations has stymied
Red hopes so far.
EGYPT Nasser takes Russia's money and throws Communists in jail.
So does IRAQ. Communist parties are still underground,
diminished in membership.
INDIA This prime Communist target is moving ahead, spreading
democratic methods down to the villages.
 

 
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Resentments still linger from the old colonial days and inflammation is still possible. But chances are good for a free world victory in keeping the world's new nations independent.

Worry: Western Europe

Here are 13 nations of 260 million prospering people. Nations are integrating economies and moving towards closer political cooperation. There are new factories, jobs, prosperity. This is nothing short of revolutionary, as the Communists see things. Red hopes and plans were based on the assumption that these western European countries would fall to communism after World War II. According to dogma, the industrialized nations should be ripped by ever-deepening class struggle, economic crises, and by fighting among themselves.

Instead, the opposite is happening.

Worry: Fading Communist Popularity

A certain indicator of the failure of communism to gain popularity is the score chalked up by Communist parties in recent free general elections. Some examples:
 

Communists Elected
Sweden
Norway
Finland
France
Israel
Italy
In next-to-last election
5
1
50
150
3
143
In last election
5
0
47
10
5
140

In the U.S., Communist Party strength is down 90 per cent since 1944, its peak year.

Worry: U. S. Military Might

Khrushchev knows he is facing a superbly equipped, well trained and READY offensive force which can devastate the Soviet Union. Arrayed against him are such publicized items as:
 

* Some 65 intercontinental missiles carrying nuclear warheads.
* At least 6 Polaris submarines, each of which can hurl 30 megatons of destruction from submerged positions from the North Pole to the Persian Gulf.
* Hundreds of heavy bombers carrying nuclear bombs; some of these are based near Russia's borders.
* The Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean mounting atomic bombs and rockets aboard its air arms. Other carrier fleets police the world in the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Pacific.
* For limited wars, combat ready divisions, with sharply increased air and sea lift and firepower. A guerilla warfare force is ready too.

Adding to the U.S. might are nearly 30 NATO divisions which are or can be quickly equipped with atomic weapons; 60 H-bombs which Britain has in place on Thor IRBM's aimed at Russia; 20 Italian high-megaton range bombs ready to be launched via Jupiter IRBM's; 44 Mutual assistance pacts in which other nations have agreed to come to our aid.

Two hundred military bases are located in Western Europe where 10 years ago only 20 existed.

Communist Expansion Has Been Checked

Let's look at another part of the score:
 

* In 8 years immediately after World War II, Stalin extended Communist control to 10 countries and 800 million people.
* Since 1956 when Khrushchev took the reins, Communist control has been extended to only one country (Cuba) with 6 million people. Even this victory, serious as it is, was caused more by our mistakes than by Communist planning.

Do We Have a Foreign Policy?

Many people suggest that America has no long-range foreign policy. I don't agree. It is a tribute to leaders of both our political parties that American foreign policy 1946-1962 has had a


 
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bi-partisan framework. There have been differences in emphasis, skill and tactics, but Eisenhower followed the essential threads of Truman's strategy just as Kennedy has continued Eisenhower's. The end aims of our foreign policy have been:
 

1. Avoid World War III.
2. Freedom for America.
3. Freedom for our democratic partners.
4. Non-Communist governments for the new and neutral nations of the world.
5. Eventual freedom for the captive nations.

To achieve these goals, both Republican and Democratic administrations have tried to:
 

1. Keep our nation economically strong. In order to do this, a large balance of payments surplus must be maintained. Another major element is the trade legislation, soon to become law, a link to Europe in the great common enterprises of the free community of nations. Finally, we require a high and well-sustained rate of growth and relatively full employment.
2. Maintain a large, flexible military establishment sufficient to deter attack and fight general or limited wars, and help our allies remain militarily strong.
3. Strengthen the association and partnership among ourselves and the free highly industrialized nations of the Atlantic Community: Britain, France, Germany, Canada, etc., and with Japan.
4. Develop friendly relations and economic partnership with the emerging nations of Latin America, Africa and Asia so that they progress toward democracy and rising living standards.
5. Divide Russia from its satellites and encourage the satellites to move toward more freedom.

U. S. Cold War Programs

The Communists have used various techniques to defeat our aims. But we have taken the initiative too. Our cold war offense in recent years has been bolstered with special programs such as these:
 

* PEACE CORPS, highly successful and now operating in 44 countries.
* ALLIANCE FOR PROGRESS, designed to help South America in its transition to modern industrial free partners.
* CIVIC ACTION PROGRAM, just getting underway, to utilize military manpower in under-developed countries for public works projects.
* FOOD FOR PEACE, helping to end hunger and to create a stronger alliance.

CONCLUSION

I do not believe in peace at any price. Along with most Americans I am willing, if need be, to risk a nuclear war rather than live under communism. But our aim is a world in which we are neither "Red nor Dead" but alive, prosperous, free and at peace.

In war, the best generals are calm in the midst of panic, willing to roll with the punch, ready to improvise new strategies and techniques for changing situations; ready for offense or defense as the events may require; prepared to wait, or to charge.

We are the "generals" of a free world's forces in a deadly serious struggle. Let us be strong, calm, reasonable, alert and united.

The cold war isn't lost. On balance we are winning.


Previous Report: September 14, 1962 -- Arizona's Public Lands -- Both Blessing and Burden
Next Report: December 10, 1962 -- Constituents, Congressmen and Communication -- A "Gift Subscription" Suggestion


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